Understanding interlinkages between long-term trajectory of exposure and vulnerability, path dependency and cascading impacts of disasters in Saint-Martin (Caribbean)

This empirical and interdisciplinary study investigates the contribution of deeply enrooted social-political factors to accumulation exposure vulnerability amplification cascading impacts disasters, with implications on creation reinforcement path dependency maintaining social-ecological systems a maladaptive trajectory. Applying Trajectory Exposure Vulnerability approach Saint-Martin (Caribbean), we more specifically highlight how causal chain linking historical geopolitical political-institutional drivers legal, economic, demographic, sociocultural, planning-related environmental drivers, created over time contributed propagation tropical cyclones Irma José in 2017. We find that dynamics involving unsustainable development settlement patterns, weakness local institutions, population mistrust public authorities, high social inequalities degradation maintained trajectory through powerful reinforcing mechanisms operating both between during cyclonic events. demonstrates long-term approaches are required for better understanding identification levers break it risk-prone contexts. In Saint-Martin, breaking requires alignment institutional capacities national risk reduction policies, promotion justice involvement communities decision making. therefore confirms relevance backward-looking support forward-looking climate adaptation.